Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfielders (Part 2)

Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfielders (Part 2)

By: Kyle Brown (@CavghtLooking)

Nelson Cruz almost injured himself reading this article.

Nelson Cruz almost injured himself reading this article.

There are a lot of outfielders who will give you passable numbers. Players like Alfonso Soriano, Nelson Cruz, Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick, Shane Victorino, etc., are old, but can provide a nice boost off the bench in a pinch. However, those are not the players who interest me. For this section, I will place the outfielders in one of three categories: 1) Upside Points, 2) The Excluded Middle, and 3) Avoid At All Costs. However, I will really only focus on the interesting cases. I mean, seriously, do you need to hear that Nelson Cruz is going to hit 20-25 home runs with a questionable average? No, you don’t.

The Upside Crew

Ben Revere, Philadelphia (.294/.333/.342)

If you need to stash some steals on your bench then Ben Revere is your man. He makes a crazy amount of contact (92.6%) and gets the most out of his speed by hitting everything on the ground. Revere has the skills to steal 60-70 bases. If he hits one home run this year it will be of the inside-the-park variety. The question: why pay anything for Michael Bourn (ADP 66) when Ben Revere (ADP 186) is going to match or best him in most categories?

Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox (.255/.300/.444)

I hope Dayan Viciedo’s intro music is Harry Belafonte. Dayan quietly blasted 25 home runs in his first full season. Also, his BABIP last year was much lower than any number he posted in the minors. Just 24-years old, I think Viciedo has the potential to hit 30 home runs. If his luck numbers stabilize this year he is going to go .270/70/25/80.

Josh Reddick, Oakland (.242/.305/.463)

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Reddick hit .268/.348/.532 in the first half and .215/.256/.391. His BB% dropped from 10.6 to 5.4. All of those numbers lead me to believe that Reddick is going to struggle in 2013. Reddick will hit 20-25 home runs with a very low average.

Todd Frazier, Cincinnati (.273/.331/.498)

I already wrote about Frazier in my 3rd base rankings. He’s a good bat in a great situation. Frazier is eligible at third, first and outfield, making him a fantastic guy to stash on your bench.

Starling Marte, Pittsburgh (.257/.300/.437)

Starling Marte is going to need a few more reps in the big leagues before his game catches up with his talent. However, the 13 extra-base hits and 12 steals he posted in just 47 games are very encouraging. Keep your eye on Marte this season, but the real break out will come in 2014.

Aaron Hicks, Minnesota (No 2012 Stats)

Hicks is making a case for starting the season as the Twins centerfielder. Spring training numbers don’t mean anything, but a good showing can win you a job. Hicks has an advanced approach at the plate and possesses both power and speed.

Tyler Colvin, Colorado (.290/.327/.531)

Colvin is classic example of a Colorado hitter. His home/away OPS split last year was 1.032/.687. Colvin hit 20 home runs in 2010 for the Cubs, so the power is real. I do not think he will stay on Colorado’s bench for long. Draft Colvin for the bench and get him into your lineup for his home games. Anything else he gives you is gravy.

Adam Eaton, Arizona (.259/.382/.412)

People are pretty excited about Eaton this season, but I don’t really know why. Loving a player who hustles and has a good contact rate is one thing, claiming that he will be fantasy relevant is another. Eaton’s 13.2 BB% is the highest mark he has posted since A+ ball, so I do not think we can expect that kind of plate discipline in his first full season. He will have a decent average and a good number of steals, but you can get that kind of production from a lot of players.

Wil Myers, Tampa Bay (No 2012 MLB Stats)

The existence of the Kansas City Royals makes being a Pirates fan much easier to tolerate. Why they traded Myers for Shields is beyond me. Wil-I-Am-Going-To-Smash-Dingers is going to smash dingers as soon as the Rays feel comfortable starting his service-time clock. Draft him and stash him on your bench. You can reap the rewards in the second half of the season.

Michael Saunders, Seattle (.247/.306/.432)

Michael Saunders was almost 20/20 last season? Interesting….who the heck is Michael Saunders? Well, he is a guy who couldn’t hit a ball to save his life in 2010 and 2011. In 2012, Saunders cut his K% by 7.4 and started hitting more balls on the ground. If he can continue that trend then a 20/20 season should be possible.

Leonys Martin, Texas (.174/.235/.370)

Leonys is still fighting for playing time in Texas and his big league performance last year was disappointing, to say the least. I’m not buying into the hype until he shows that he can handle major league pitching. Proceed with caution.

The Excluded Middle

Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.298/.363/.471)

As soon as Brian Roberts injures himself Markakis will hit leadoff. He did very well in the leadoff role last season. Keep that in mind.

Nelson Cruz, Texas (.260/.319/.460)

BREAKING NEWS: Cruz is going to hit 20-25 home runs with a questionable average.

Jayson Werth, Washington (.300/.387/.440)

I still have nightmares about Werth’s injury. (Editor’s Note: I still have nightmares about Werth’s beard). Expecting .260/20/15.

Shane Victorino, Boston (.255/.321/.383)

Victorino in Boston is good fit. There are a lot of left-handed pitchers to hit off of in the AL East. He is going to love the green monster. I’m thinking .275/15/30.

Melky Cabrera, Toronto (.346/.390/.516)

Yeah, the steroid suspension scares me away. No idea what to expect this season from Melky.

Carl Crawford, Los Angeles Dodgers (.282/.306/.479)

Crawford’s left arm is recovering from Tommy John surgery. His right arm is experiencing tightness this spring. Proceed with extreme caution.

Ryan Ludwick, Cincinnati (.275/.346/.531)

Ludwick + Great American Ballpark = 25 home runs.

Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs (.262/.322/.499)

2012 will be the last season Soriano hits 30+ home runs (I hope).

Chris Davis, Baltimore (.270/.326/.501)

Do you want to know the terrifying truth about Davis’ K% and HR/FB%? Or do you want to see him sock a few dingers?

Dexter Fowler, Colorado (.300/.389/.474)

You can look at Dexter Fowler and see the potential for regression. Or, you can look at Dexter Fowler and see a young player who has gotten slightly better in each of his first four seasons. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle.

Michael Cuddyer, Colorado (.260/.317/.489)

A healthy Cuddyer will hit 20 home runs with a .270 average.

Brett Gardner, New York Yankees (2011 Stats: .259/.345/.369)

Got Steals? No? Get Gardner.

Jason Kubel, Arizona (.253/.327/.506)

19.0 HR/FB% will regress. Not expecting a repeat.

Garrett Jones, Pittsburgh (.274/.317/.516)

17.1 HR/FB% will regress. Not expecting a repeat. Also, Jones might should be in a platoon with Gaby Sanchez.

Ichiro Suzuki, New York Yankees (.283/.307/.390)

Yankee Stadium gave Ichiro a boost. Can he hit .322/.340/.454 for a full season? No.

Cody Ross, Arizona (.267/.326/.481)

Ross is a .270/20-homer player. Do you get points for being gritty?

Justin Ruggiano, Miami (.313/.374/.535)

He certainly won’t repeat his triple slash for a full season, but Cody Ross-like production will work for your bench.

Torii Hunter, Detroit (.313/.365/.451)

.389 BABIP will regress. Expecting a big dropoff.

Carlos Quentin, San Diego (.261/.374/.504)

Twenty home runs? Yes.

Brandon Moss, Oakland (.291/.358/.596)

25.9 HR/FB% will plummet back to earth. Not expecting a repeat.

Michael Morse, Seattle (.291/.321/.470)

I don’t like Morse in Seattle. Come to think of it, I don’t really like Morse anywhere.

Avoid At All Costs

Anthony Gose, Toronto (.223/.303/.319)

My nose tells me that Gose stinks. His highest average in the minor leagues was .286. Despite BABIP numbers that were regularly above .330, Gose spent most of his minor league career hitting in the .250’s. His .223 average in 56 games for Toronto last season was supported by a .340 BABIP. I’m not even going to mention his 31.2 K% (Ok, I am going to mention it). Gose is going to be a bust.

Darin Ruf, Philadelphia (.333/.351/.727)

Sean ConneryIt is hard to ignore 38 double-A home runs. It is hard to ignore the fact that Darin Ruf was 25-years old and playing in double-A. On top of that, it is hard to ignore Ruf’s 32.4 K% in 12 major league games last fall. It’s going to be rough for Ruf. (Editor’s Note: if you are a fan of Sean Connery on SNL’s Celebrity Jeopardy, then you may want to draft this guy so you can say “Ruf…just the way your mother likes it, Trebek.)

Colby Rasmus, Toronto (.223/.289/.400)

That’s three bad seasons out of four, Colby. I wash my hands of you.

Drew Stubbs, Cleveland (.213/.277/.333)

These are Stubbs’ batting averages for the last four seasons starting with 2009: .267, .255, .243, .213. Everything is going in the wrong direction. The 15/30 potential isn’t worth the headaches.

Trevor Plouffe, Minnesota (.235/.301/.455)

I am not a scout. However, I am from Rochester, NY and have seen Trevor Plouffe in person several times. He is really not this good. In 2062, when Trevor Plouffe is old and grey, he will tell his grandkids about the greatest year he ever played in the show. He will be talking about 2012.

Jason Bay, Seattle (.165/.237/.299)

All I can say is that he should have stayed in Boston. (Editor’s Note: if you know anything about me, then you know that Jason Bay is the punchline to 68% of my fantasy sports jokes.  If you draft him, then you deserve to be punched in the face.)

 

 

 

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